Q1 2022: Volatility and Commodities Surge

Q1 2022: Volatility and Commodities Surge

May 02, 2022

Following is a summary of economic results for the first quarter of 2022. It is imperative that we have the best available resources to help us understand what can impact financial decisions and guide us to our recommendations for your personal situation. In this case we turn to Mark Kane at CIBC Private Wealth Management

Here is Mark's overview from the attached PDF presentation:

  • The war in Ukraine has brought down growth estimates.
  • Despite slower growth, we feel that corporate earnings should grow modestly from here, and that stocks should struggle to move higher and outperform bonds.
  • Earnings estimates are slowly rising and should remain that way for 2022, but slower than previously thought. Valuations are simultaneously falling.
  • The Federal Reserve remains vigilant in combating inflation – we expect 3 or 4 more moves by the Fed in 2022.
  • Most importantly we do not see a 2022 recession as tight labor markets and rising wages suggest GDP growth in the 2.5% area.
  • China bears watching as growth has slowed, real estate has deteriorated and stress cracks in their credit market have increased.

You will find our asset class views and portfolio strategy in this chart (Pg 11 of PDF)

Recommended portfolio strategy allocation:  Moderate risk profile 

The information provided herein is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. While the data has been obtained from what are considered to be reliable sources, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Any strategies described may not be suitable for everyone. Readers are encouraged to evaluate all information in light of their own situation, and seek the advice of an appropriate professional advisor.